Since 2025, the butyl rubber industry has shown a steady growth trend driven by multiple policies and market factors. Data shows that the global market size of butyl rubber is expected to increase from 4.5 billion US dollars in 2025 to 6 billion US dollars in 2030, with an average annual compound growth rate of 4.5% to 5.8%; The performance of the Chinese market is more prominent, with a scale expected to grow from 18.6 billion yuan to 27.8 billion yuan, and an average annual compound growth rate of 8.3%, becoming the core engine of global industry growth.
The current industry presents significant structural characteristics, with supply-demand contradictions and technological differences coexisting. The utilization rate of butyl rubber production capacity in China has reached 80%, but the self-sufficiency rate is only 55%. Among the apparent consumption of 1.2 million tons in 2024, the dependence on imports is still as high as 45%. This contradiction stems from an imbalance in product structure: the production capacity of ordinary butyl rubber accounts for 65%, with a tendency towards excess; However, the production capacity of high-performance halogenated butyl rubber accounts for only 35%, and the core technology has long been controlled by international giants such as ExxonMobil and Aramco. The import unit price of domestic high-end products is as high as 35000 to 40000 yuan/ton, far exceeding the price level of domestic ordinary products of 18000 to 22000 yuan/ton.
The structural upgrading of downstream demand has become the core driving force for industry transformation. Tire manufacturing, as the largest application area of butyl rubber, accounts for 83%, with the demand for new energy vehicle tires growing particularly rapidly. Driven by the global leadership in the production and sales of new energy vehicles for 10 consecutive years, the demand for butyl rubber in the domestic new energy vehicle tire field is expected to grow by 25% in 2024, and it is expected to consume 40% of the country's butyl rubber production by 2025. This incremental demand places higher demands on product performance - the design of flat split tires for new energy vehicles has increased the amount of butyl rubber used in a single tire from 1.2 to 1.5kg to 1.8 to 2.2kg, and the latest tire labeling regulations in the European Union have reduced the benzene content requirement from 50ppm to 5ppm, further exacerbating the supply pressure of high-end products.
The expansion of the construction and new energy fields has opened up new spaces for the industry. In the field of construction, the global demand for butyl adhesive will reach 3.5 million tons in 2024, with China's construction industry accounting for 50%. The mandatory use policy of LowE insulated glass is driving up the demand for high-end butyl adhesive; The photovoltaic industry has become a new growth pole. In 2024, the consumption of butyl rubber for photovoltaic module packaging exceeded 120000 tons, accounting for 28.4% of the overall shipment volume. The increase in the penetration rate of double glass modules has led to a surge in demand for nano modified butyl rubber. The water vapor transmission rate of such products can be reduced to below 0.15g/m ² · d, which is 32% lower than traditional products.
Faced with market opportunities and technological bottlenecks, local enterprises are accelerating their breakthroughs. Leading enterprises such as Zhejiang Xinhui and Yanshan Petrochemical have already occupied 40% of the domestic production capacity share, among which Yanshan Petrochemical has entered the pilot stage of cationic polymerization technology developed through industry university research cooperation. In the field of technology mergers and acquisitions, Wanhua Chemical acquired the halogenation technology team of TPC Group in Germany for 230 million euros in 2024, narrowing the gap with international advanced levels. On the raw material side, the self-sufficiency rate of key raw materials such as polyisobutene has increased from 32% in 2018 to 68% in 2024, effectively alleviating cost pressures. At the policy level, the National Development and Reform Commission's "Petrochemical Industry Planning and Layout Plan" has set a goal of increasing the self-sufficiency rate of butyl rubber to 70% by 2025, and many regions have established special funds to support the localization of key equipment.
Industry experts point out that the next five years will be a critical adjustment period for the butyl rubber industry. With the commissioning of new halogenation units such as Zhejiang Petrochemical and Huizhou CNOOC Shell, it is expected that the proportion of high-end product production capacity will increase to 50% by 2028, and the self-sufficiency rate is expected to exceed 65%. Enterprise competition will focus on three major directions: integrated layout of upstream and downstream, such as Shenghong Petrochemical's planned 300000 tons/year isobutene butyl rubber joint plant; The research and development of green technology, as well as the pilot testing of bio based raw materials and water-based butyl rubber, are progressing smoothly; The expansion of overseas markets and the construction of export channels in Southeast Asia are accelerating. Driven by multiple forces, China's butyl rubber industry is gradually transitioning from scale expansion to quality upgrading, and is expected to occupy a more important position in the global value chain.
